Thursday, July 15, 2010
Back in May when the U.S. dollar index hit 84, I commented that it might be ready to rollover and go lower. I made the same call when it traded thru 86 in June. One particular reader was constantly busting my stones over this call. Well, here we are in mid-July, and the dollar - having topped out just above the 88 level, has crashed overnight below 83 as I write this. Here is the weekly chart of the U.S. dollar index, which if I may say so myself, looks pretty bearish:
For the sake of grace and humility, I will just say that anyone who shorted the dollar on my original call at 84 and held onto the position - minimally (without adding to the short at higher levels) - is now in a nice profit position. Furthermore, since gold has outperformed the dollar during this period, if you shorted the dollar at 84 and added to your gold position, you are happy x 2.
On a fundamental basis, if someone showed me the fiscal condition of every country in Europe, England, Japan and the U.S., without identifying the country with the balance sheet and budget statement, I would identify the U.S. as by far being in the most fundamentally hopeless condition.
To be sure, the dollar is a bit oversold technically and could bounce back up to the 84 level as those who shorted it at 88 take some profits. But using basic fundamental analysis on the economic, political and financial condition of the United States, I would be adding to my dollar short position on every bounce. You can look at the chart and assess where you would take some trading profits, but I believe that there is a very real probability that we could see the dollar ultimately go down and test that 72 "do or die" level sometime during the next 12 months.
BP update: I see there's no news on the renewed cap testing. Word to me is that the cap has failed, the sea-floor fracture at the wellhead is spreading and fish down by the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico are being pulled out of the water with tar-balls in their belly. The oil dispersants being used by Haliburton are causing the oil to sink with the dispersant to the seafloor and the dispersant is heating up the massive methane hydrate pools which are accumulating on the seafloor from the leak. This has the potential to create an incredibly powerful greenhouse gas.
Posted by Dave in Denver at 5:42 AM